Trading Outpost

MACD Is Lying To You At The Worst Possible Moment

Every figure, definition and mechanical claim the finished picture puts on screen, chased to a source and cited. Nothing in this file is a claim the video does not make.

The price series drawn in this video are generated, not recorded. They are there to show a mechanism rather than to assert that anything happened on any particular day, and every shot carrying one says so on the frame.

What MACD is, and how it is calculated

MACD stands for moving average convergence divergence, and it measures the gap between two moving averages. A momentum indicator built from the relationship between two exponential moving averages of price; convergence is the two averages moving towards each other and divergence is them moving apart.

Source: StockCharts ChartSchool, MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Oscillator — https://chartschool.stockcharts.com/table-of-contents/technical-indicators-and-overlays/technical-indicators/macd-moving-average-convergence-divergence-oscillator

The default periods are twelve, twenty six and nine, and the three lines are defined as follows. ChartSchool states the formula verbatim:

MACD Line:      (12-day EMA - 26-day EMA)
Signal Line:    9-day EMA of MACD Line
MACD Histogram: MACD Line - Signal Line

That is the whole of the video’s claim that the MACD line is the fast average minus the slow average, that the signal line smooths the MACD line, and that the histogram shows the distance between them.

Source: StockCharts ChartSchool, as above.

The twelve and twenty six period exponential moving averages are what platforms ship as the default. TradingView’s own documentation for its MACD indicator exposes exactly the three inputs above, a fast length, a slow length and a signal length, with the choice of exponential or simple averaging.

Source: TradingView, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) — https://www.tradingview.com/support/solutions/43000502344-moving-average-convergence-divergence-macd/

Why it arrives late

MACD is a lagging indicator because of what it is made of, not because it is broken. This is the central claim of the video and it is stated plainly in the general reference:

“Since the MACD is based on moving averages, it is a lagging indicator… Hence the trends will already be completed or almost done by the time MACD shows the trend.”

The signal line adds a second layer of smoothing on top of the first, and that costs further delay. The same reference describes the signal series as carrying “an additional low-pass filter in tandem for further smoothing (and additional lag)”, which is the video’s point that price is smoothed into averages, turned into a gap, then smoothed again.

Source: MACD — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACD

The zero line

Above zero the fast average is above the slow average, and below zero it is below. ChartSchool describes a bullish centre line crossing as the MACD line moving above zero to turn positive, which “happens when the 12-day EMA of the underlying security moves above the 26-day EMA”, and the bearish case as its mirror. That is the whole basis for the video’s use of the zero line as a regime reading rather than as a signal.

Source: StockCharts ChartSchool, as above.

Divergence

Bearish divergence is a higher high in price against a lower high in MACD. Bullish divergence is a lower low in price against a higher low in MACD. Both are quoted directly:

“A bullish divergence forms when a security records a lower low and the MACD forms a higher low.”

“A bearish divergence forms when a security records a higher high and the MACD line forms a lower high.”

The same source cautions that divergences have to be read inside the broader trend rather than taken as reversal signals on their own, which is the video’s position on them.

Source: StockCharts ChartSchool, as above.

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