Trading Outpost

Never Average Down A Losing Trade Like This Again

Everything this video states that a viewer could check, chased to where it can be checked.

The video teaches a mechanism rather than reporting an event. It uses one worked trade throughout, and that trade is illustrative: entry one hundred, stop ninety six, target one hundred and eight, an add at ninety eight. Those prices are chosen to make the arithmetic legible and are not a record of any instrument at any time. Every figure the picture puts on screen is derived from them, and every derivation is written out below so the numbers in the shots can be checked against the numbers here.

The four market shapes near the end (a trend day, an earnings gap, a cascading crypto liquidation and a currency move on a data release) are drawn the same way, as shapes those conditions take rather than as particular sessions.

The worked trade, and everything derived from it

Stated Derivation Result
Risk is four points entry 100 minus stop 96 4
Reward is eight points target 108 minus entry 100 8
A clean two R idea reward 8 divided by risk 4 2R
At ninety eight the position is red 98 minus 100, one unit minus 2 points
The average entry becomes ninety nine (100 + 98) divided by 2, equal size 99
The first position loses four points 96 minus 100 minus 4
The second position loses two points 96 minus 98 minus 2
Total loss six points across two entries 4 plus 2 6 points

R is the initial risk taken on a trade, so a target eight points away with a stop four points away is two times that initial risk. The video uses the term once and derives it on screen from the trade’s own two numbers rather than assuming it.

The risk percentage, which is the one place the arithmetic needs care

The video says the original risk is one percent of the account, that adding the same size again takes it above one percent, that it might be one and a half percent or two percent, and that moving the stop lower can take it past three percent. Those figures are not interchangeable and the picture draws each one from the case that actually produces it.

Taking one unit risking four points as one percent of the account:

Case Points at risk As a share of the account
One unit at 100, stop 96 4 1.0%
Plus one unit at 98, stop still 96 4 + 2 = 6 1.5%
Plus two units at 98, stop still 96 4 + 4 = 8 2.0%
One unit at 100 and one at 98, stop moved to 92 8 + 6 = 14 3.5%

So one and a half percent is what an equal sized add at ninety eight produces with the stop left alone, and two percent needs an add of twice that size. Three percent and beyond arrives when the stop is moved rather than when size is added. The picture labels each figure with the case it comes from, so no number on screen is larger than what produced it.

The last line is the point the chapter is making: moving the stop expands the loss faster than adding size does, because it lengthens the distance every leg is measured over.

Dollar cost averaging

The video says long term investors talk about dollar cost averaging, that it can mean adding money at fixed intervals regardless of price, and that this is not the same thing as adding to a losing trade because the candle went red. The term has a settled definition at both of the bodies that publish one for retail investors, and both of them turn on the two features the video relies on: equal amounts, at regular intervals, without reference to the current price.

Both descriptions are of a schedule fixed before the money is committed. That is the distinction the video draws: a schedule decided in advance is a different act from a decision taken after a position is already losing, whatever the two are called.

What is not verified